Should Snap work on Specs (AR Glasses)?
Snap and Irenic are both wrong
What Meta has shown is people are willing to wear glasses with cameras in public. Cameras in exchange for the ability to take photos and videos hands free is a trade off that is accepted by the majority of people.
Both Snap critics like activist investor Irenic misunderstand the market and value of AR glasses in different ways.
Spec’s External Camera Gap
Evan Spiegel and Snap leadership is correct in believing glasses can replace phones as a form factor. Snap is wrong in assuming people are willing to sacrifice their physical appearances to do so.
Appearances matter and it’s why the first iteration of Google Glass failed. Privacy matters a lot less. Meta’s glasses have proven people willing to wear smart glasses that have cameras on them.
Snap’s decision to not have a puck device or have offloaded processing to a smartphone is bold and wrong strategically. I think you need a phone or puck as a bridge computing device for two reasons.
You need more computing power and battery life because most people are unwilling to wear clunky things on their face
You need an external camera so people can take pictures and videos of themselves.
Point two implies that most people will still have a smartphone even if they are interested in Specs. This is why the decision to not offload processing to a phone doesn’t make sense to me. Snap of all companies should understand people want to create content that includes themselves. This implies there will be few pure AR glasses users because of the lack of an external camera via a smartphone.
A Possible Solution to AR Glasses Bulk
If you want people to use AR glasses, you want to reduce the battery size and make it smaller so the batteries can be rotated in and out. This allows for a smaller form factor. I realize that engineering wise, this is easier said than done. But this is what it’ll take if you don’t want to offload processing to a phone or have any tethering (for AR glasses).
The Error of Spec’s Critics
What critics of Snap’s Specs don’t see is that AR glasses represent Snap’s path to becoming a trillion dollar company. It’s the wrong execution but not the wrong direction.
At the end of the year, critics will point out that Specs did not sell well. They will use this as evidence that AR glasses are a bad idea. What critics are not seeing is a future where battery and hardware advances. It will allow AR glasses to look like the voice enabled camera glasses on the market by Meta today.
“AI can and should replace many existing roles,” Irenic wrote under ‘rationalize costs,’ the company’s second recommendation. - CNBC
Activist investor Irenic Capital Management is short sighted and ironically ignorant about their understanding of AI. They suggest layoffs at Snap because of AI ability to replace roles.
What they are missing are the implications for AI labs focused on world models and robotics. A mass consumer glasses company is an ideal data source for world models and robotics companies. The opportunity to partner and get equity in robotics and world model labs disappears without glasses.
Irenic is extracting short term value while dooming Snap’s long-term potential. If Irenic has their way, this potential goes mostly to Meta, Google and Apple.